A report from Ontario's electricity system operator says the province can fully eliminate natural gas generation by 2050, but it will require about $400 billion in capital spending and new, large-scale nuclear plants.
The Independent Electricity System Operator also says a moratorium on new natural gas is possible starting in 2027.
The IESO recently said in an interim report that Ontario would need more natural gas in the short term, to provide flexibility and fill a supply gap as electricity demand grows and nuclear plants are refurbished or retire.
But beyond a new 1,500 megawatts of natural gas generation the energy minister has directed the IESO to procure, the system operator says a moratorium is feasible and can even start being phased out.
The IESO says decarbonizing the electricity system by 2050 would require between $375 and $425 billion in capital costs over 23 years, resulting in annual operating costs of about $60 billion by 2050 -- three times the current costs.
IESO officials say there is no precise plan for exactly how much of each generation source would be needed to replace natural gas and meet rising electricity demand, but it would involve a ``significant'' amount of nuclear -- both large plants and small modular reactors.